The world economy is projected to reach USD 124 trillion by 2026. At first glance, this number feels abstract, too large to grasp, too distant from daily life. Yet behind this figure lies a profound shift in global power that Indonesia cannot afford to misread.
For decades, the global economic order was shaped by a small group of advanced economies. Today, that era is ending. Economic gravity is moving, not abruptly, but decisively, toward Asia and toward countries that were once described merely as “emerging.” In this new landscape, the defining actors will not only be superpowers, but middle powers: nations with scale, stability, and strategic positioning.
Indonesia is one of them.
Beyond Rankings and League Tables
Indonesia’s GDP may still sit outside the top ten, but focusing solely on rankings misses the point. Economic relevance in the coming decade will not be determined only by size, but by function.
Indonesia has three assets that are increasingly rare in a fragmented world: a large domestic market, geopolitical neutrality, and geographic centrality in the Indo-Pacific. These assets give Indonesia leverage-not as a challenger to major powers, but as a connector among them.
In a world where supply chains are being reconfigured, where capital seeks stability, and where markets seek scale, Indonesia is not merely a destination. It can become a platform.
The Rise of Asia-and Indonesia’s Responsibility
Asia is now the largest contributor to global growth. This is not just about China or India; it is about the ecosystem around them. Southeast Asia sits at the heart of that ecosystem, and Indonesia sits at the heart of Southeast Asia.
This position brings responsibility. Indonesia must move beyond a passive role, waiting for investment, reacting to global trends, and take a more deliberate approach to shaping its economic future.
The question is no longer whether Indonesia will grow. The question is how it will grow, and for whom.
From Market to Platform Economy
For too long, Indonesia has been viewed-and sometimes has viewed itself-simply as a large market. This is no longer sufficient.
In a USD124 trillion global economy, Indonesia should reposition itself as a value-consolidation platform: a place where tourism, MSMEs, infrastructure, green projects, and digital innovation are not offered as isolated opportunities, but as integrated investment ecosystems.
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This requires a shift in policy thinking:
- From fragmented projects to consolidated portfolios
- From volume-based growth to productivity-led growth
- From short-term inflows to long-term partnerships
Domestic consumption must become an anchor that de-risks investment. MSMEs must be integrated into national value chains, not treated as peripheral actors. Tourism must be developed not only as an industry, but as a multiplier of culture, employment, and regional development.
Middle Power, Moral Power
Indonesia’s strength has never been domination. It has been credibility.
As a non-aligned country with a tradition of dialogue, Indonesia can act as a bridge in a polarized world, between East and West, between capital and development, between growth and sustainability. This is not ideology; it is strategy.
Middle powers that succeed in the next decade will be those that can combine economic scale with political trust. Indonesia has both, but only if we choose to use them.
A Moment That Must Not Be Wasted
Moments of structural change do not last forever. The transition to a multipolar global economy is happening now. Countries that prepare will shape the rules; those that hesitate will be shaped by them.
Indonesia has the population, the geography, the resources, and, most importantly, the social cohesion to play a defining role in this new era. What we need now is clarity of vision and consistency of policy.
In a USD124 trillion world, Indonesia should not ask how it can fit in. It should decide what role it intends to play.
